Hacker News

Someone allegedly used a hairdryer to rig Polymarket weather bets

88 points by cdrnsf ago | 44 comments

hilariously |next [-]

"It sucks that someone potentially tricked a temperature sensor with a hairdryer to scam actual gamblers out of potential winnings" really missed a chance to say it blows.

stronglikedan |root |parent |next [-]

in fairness, hairdryers have to suck so they can blow

moi2388 |root |parent |next |previous [-]

That’s rather dry humour for such a hairy situation

lelandfe |root |parent [-]

It went over my head, but I think they’re full of hot air anyway.

mmmlinux |root |parent |previous [-]

"actual gamblers"

nkrisc |next |previous [-]

Gambling addicts will really gamble on anything, won’t they? It’s a bit strange to see degenerate gambling dressed up as “predictions”.

gwerbin |root |parent |next [-]

This looks less like gambling addiction and more like a scam executed for profit.

close04 |root |parent |next [-]

A lot of gambling is a scam executed form profit. I call it a scam because it's not always fraudulent, it's persuasion and a dash of misleading info. Often one party unduly influences the outcome or has information that the other can't have. Whether it's corruption to predetermine the result of a match, or knowing that the star player will miss it, or a gambling machine that suggests a higher expected payout than the real one, or even a casino's rules that arbitrarily decide whether your win was legitimate or not, in practice the industry is more scam than legitimate business.

SirFatty |root |parent |next |previous [-]

And who fueled the profits? Gamblers?

wongarsu |root |parent |next |previous [-]

This instance is what you could call a scam, maybe even fraud. But in the absence of manipulation or insider knowledge predicting the weather is pretty close to gambling. As is "does bitcoin go up or down in the next five minutes" or "how many tweets will Elon Musk post in the next couple days" (all real bets on Polymarket)

chneu |root |parent |previous [-]

Yes, gambling. That's literally what gambling is, a scam.

qup |root |parent [-]

Gambling takes many forms.

If you and I flip a coin for $100, there's no scam.

mint5 |root |parent |next [-]

It’s a scam when the house takes $1 from that $100 each time. These unlicensed internet gambling halls most certainly take their cut, whatever that amount is.

testing22321 |root |parent |next |previous [-]

Sooner or later someone will rig the coin

chucksta |root |parent [-]

Potential for fraudulent activity makes something a scam? That list is gonna be long

hyperhello |root |parent |previous [-]

Or a spherical cow.

alansaber |root |parent |next |previous [-]

We rename everything to make it cooler to sell. Probably been a thing since the times of the sea people.

saghm |root |parent [-]

Even the term "sea people" sounds cooler than "those dudes who live over there by the water"

gizajob |root |parent [-]

Preferable to “the beaker folk of the Bronze Age”

troyvit |root |parent |previous [-]

I'm a "holy crap how do they keep getting the weather so wrong" addict and it's as irrational as being a gambling addict in that weather forecasts have improved a lot. I've never been tempted to gamble until now, where I realize I can put my money where my (irrational) mouth is.

All that said, gambling addiction is like a disease, same as any other. Holding folks who have it in contempt is about the same as holding alcoholics in contempt. It ignores the fact that it's a real affliction and not a lifestyle choice. Polymarket is taking advantage of that affliction.

xg15 |next |previous [-]

I think what's also telling is Polymarket's non-reaction to this. If there are obvious concerns that the outcome was manipulated, I'd expect them to invalidate the bet - otherwise they're effectively incentivising manipulation.

solumos |root |parent |next [-]

Polymarket is simply an exchange for these sorts of “contracts” and the results are verified by a separate entity (it’s a DAO, which of course can be manipulated, and was the subject of controversy due to some Venezuela invasion-related “market” resolutions)

mint5 |root |parent |previous [-]

No no no, the outcome revealed new information as the market intends! That info is that people had discounted the rare weather event “a 10% chance of localized hairdryers” on the day in question. The bettor predicted this better than everyone else, making their info public by placing a bet!!! /s

cnj |next |previous [-]

It never occurred to me that Goodhart's law could be applied to betting, but here we are :)

HeavyStorm |next |previous [-]

If that happened, has a crime been committed? I don't think so. Well, maybe tampering with the thermometer might be a crime, but, on the gambling angle, I would say it's not.

JohnMakin |root |parent [-]

If you cheat a casino, you go to jail.

boringg |next |previous [-]

Is there a bet available to determine if the weather forecasted was impacted by a hair dryer?

cosmojg |root |parent [-]

That's not a bad idea. It actually sounds like it could be a very useful hedge/insurance play.

wongarsu |root |parent [-]

That'd be easier to game than "will somebody run onto the field in the next $sports game". Just bet yes and bring a hair dryer. Make sure somebody posts evidence to X so you can cash out

Anon1096 |root |parent [-]

If the yes side is heavily favored because it's a "sure thing" then there will eventually be people who bet no and hire guards (or go themselves) to defend the weather sensor from the hairdryer-wielders.

saghm |root |parent [-]

This could be the origin of a new sport, and then betting on it would become even more common

boothby |next |previous [-]

I imagine it'd be harder to find somebody using an infrared laser

swader999 |next |previous [-]

Finally some hacking news!

declan_roberts |next |previous [-]

I can't believe there's no honor among the gamblers!

mac3n |next |previous [-]

is this what the cryptobros are doing now?

Arn_Thor |next |previous [-]

Maybe it's bad to let people bet on anything, huh

damnitbuilds |next |previous [-]

Is that better or worse than invading Venezuela to rig a Polymarket bet ?

ghstinda |next |previous [-]

hilarious title, engadget is still quality after all these years

beepbooptheory |next |previous [-]

Dupe from a little bit ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47878208

zobzu |next |previous [-]

climate change via hair drier ;D

avazhi |next |previous [-]

A fool and his money etc etc.

You love to see it.

Uptrenda |previous [-]

lulz futures paying off as usual