Astro Hacker News - What's Behind the Sharp Drop in Labor Force Participation?

TuringNYC |next [-]

I talk to a lot of people in the Metro NY area. One problem here is -- if you need to commute into Manhattan (job center) -- it demands a certain salary, below which commuting in is a net-loss. Rent is $2000/mo. If you have a family and cannot have multiple roommates, you might be looking at $4000/mo.

"if you cannot afford it, stop complainingb and live elsehwere" they say...sure...but a commuter train into Manhattan can run you $30-50/day. Add in parking at the commuter train station and you're down about $60 or more a day.

Now suppose you eke out some net saving -- you've unqualified yourself from medicaid health insurance now. Your net savings may not even pay for your medical deductible.

There are a lot of reasons to just not bother unless the salary can get beyond all these hurdles.

thegrim33 |root |parent |next [-]

Your theory is that some people don't find it financially worthwhile to work in NYC, so therefore they decide to just give up and not work and not move anywhere else and just do absolutely nothing instead?

redwood |root |parent |previous [-]

But New York City as a metro area is the largest conglomeration connected by low-cost mass transit in the country meaning there's a massive liquid housing market and job market ready to fingertips. So if you live in the suburbs and the commuting cost is a dilemma you can always consider moving to the city itself

darth_avocado |next |previous [-]

Im in the prime working age and if I didn’t have responsibilities (mortgage, health insurance, dependents etc.), I’d quit today and not participate for at least a couple of years. Corporate treatment of workers has deteriorated at an unprecedented rate since Covid and based on my anecdotal evidence we probably have a national level burnout and depression epidemic that no one is talking about or looking into. Most people I talk to in my age group are experiencing the same feelings.

zaptheimpaler |root |parent |next [-]

One of my colleagues said that working in software is like being a pro athlete nowadays and that struck me as true. The expectations just keep going higher and higher and higher across the board. But we sure aren't given the training, coaching, recovery, salary or recognition of pro athletes.

COVID and AI are great examples of what's wrong today. We created an incredible global communication network that lets us all collaborate across the world, used it to work through a pandemic, found a better work-life balance and saved hours of commuting and pollution daily. Now everyone is being forced back to the office. Why?

AI made many of us 2x more productive (conservatively), but where is the increased salary or bonus or reduced working hours for this productivity? All the gains are outcompeted or flow to companies balance sheets. We created this incredible technology and are rewarded with crushing expectations and FASTER FASTER FASTER as usual.

Software is still a relatively good industry because we are in demand, the others are even worse.

Most potential worker would have to be insane to be invested in a system that crushes labor and favors capital at every level.

lifestyleguru |root |parent |previous [-]

Looks like trickling up of the covid money is definitely complete now.

reinitctxoffset |root |parent [-]

Once again, Gary Stevenson is right about everything.

In fairness Pikkety knew it first: r >> g.

Tax wealth not work.

Stop redistribution.

Let workers, savers, innovators, entrepreneurs, families keep their money, use it to buy real assets, and keep money velocity up.

Down with the Central Committee.

https://imgur.com/a/tQyfNdJ

reinitctxoffset |root |parent [-]

@dang this gets brigaded? It goes in the lawsuit.

roarcher |root |parent |next [-]

I'm gonna venture a guess that it's getting downvoted because it makes no sense unless the reader happens to be familiar with your obscure references, and the linked image makes even less sense.

reinitctxoffset |root |parent |previous [-]

Organic downvotes at human speed are fine.

GP getting flagged at machine speed?

Nah dawg. That's a hard no.

Edit: oh gee willicker. I completely forgot to mention I chart all of this. I don't even need an HMM. XGboost prints the fucking switch statement.

programmertote |next |previous [-]

> Still, this rate merits carefully watching in coming months; a continued decline may signal a deeper change in the behavior of workers in this critical age group.

I know I'm speaking from a rather (somewhat) privileged position. I myself don't consider working beyond 50 years of age. I have lived frugally/minimally and am confident that (unless WW3 happens or some sort of unexpected global catastrophe arrives) I can FIRE (retire frugally with my savings) before I hit 50.

I also know it's somewhat of a bubble, but Reddit has a lot of subreddits (like r/HENRYfinance/; r/Fire/; and r/coastFIRE/) dedicated for folks retiring early.

Observing that FIRE trend and the fact that AI psychosis (don't get me wrong, I believe AI is useful, but not to a level that humans will be entirely replaced) at work place will surely drive some folks away (or at least discourage them) from staying in the work force, I am not surprised that this trend is showing up in the data. Plus, a lot of millennials are child free (by choice), so they can afford to retire early as well.

glimshe |root |parent [-]

I bailed out at 50 while fully employed and making a ton of money in big tech - I was not laid off, I simply let my manager know, found a replacement and walked away. I have kids but I saved enough for healthcare, housing etc. I worked my ass off and lived very frugally to get here. Yes, I would be screwed if WW3 comes along, but who wouldn't? That comfy Big Tech job would vanish pretty quickly too.

I have no desire to keep working for random "Mikes" and "Bobs" in upper management that only care about their bonuses and benefits. Not in Big Tech, not in a random startups, not anywhere else. "Mike wants this", "Bob wants that"... Sweet Jesus, I couldn't care less about their "direction"!

My days are now full of self-imposed challenges and interesting projects. Am I in the labor force? I guess so, but I'm working for me and humanity now.

Time is the most precious asset we all have, folks.

ryandrake |root |parent [-]

I salute you!

I just turned 50, but I never feel I can pull the trigger. The only thing really keeping me from doing it is the cost of health insurance. I've got 15 years before I can get on Medicaid, and 15 years of privately purchased health insurance for the family is just not do-able.

whatever1 |next |previous [-]

In south Europe it has been the case for like 20 years. The answer is simple. Businesses don’t pay enough.

People prefer cutting expenses and expectations (nobody in their 30-40s buys a house for example). Businesses cannot find labor or customers. So it is a downward spiral.

Everyone loses.

lifestyleguru |root |parent |next [-]

Depending on EU country employment contract is impossible to get, or while having it you are a workhorse ruthlessly lashed to sponsor and support everyone from "poor underprivileged" to rich unwilling to pay their share, and entire legion of people in-between with more or less social and retirement priviledges. Europe killed employment.

Varelion |root |parent [-]

Beyond clear the latter is far more at fault than the former.

antonymoose |root |parent |previous [-]

Don’t forget the endless importation of workers to compete and degrade your salary juxtaposed with the endless importation of welfare cases to degrade your standard of living.

God forbid if you grew up in a nice place it’s probably overrun with transplant retirees making it unaffordable. If you did the right thing, got the good degree, worked hard, saved up to buy a house and find yourself having to move across the country to find a place with decent living standards? All for the crime of being born too late to get in on the good times.

If I knew this was ahead of me I’d have never bothered - better of a NEET unless you hit it hit with a FANG type salary.

micromacrofoot |next |previous [-]

> More than half of the decline came from a statistical correction to the population level in January and from the steady effects of an aging population, not from workers exiting the labor market. But part of the decline is due to June’s sharp drop in the participation rate among workers ages 25 to 54.

> While dramatic, the June drop brings the participation rate among these prime-age workers back to a level consistent with those of recent years.

nothing to note unless it continues to drop

lazide |root |parent [-]

Considering the prior years were Covid, and the obvious scale tipping from the gov’t? Yeah right.

micromacrofoot |root |parent [-]

we've had people saying the sky is falling for years now

the_sleaze_ |next |previous [-]

ai drivel, sadly / humorously

lkbm |root |parent [-]

Pangram gave 95% human for the chunk (1,547 words) that I gave it. Part of a single paragraph was listed as AI.

throwitaway222 |next |previous [-]

maybe it was that 90% of all hiring in 2020-2024 was foreigners thing?

lkbm |root |parent [-]

What changed in June?

mikert89 |previous [-]

Anecdotal evidence, but more than half of my friends that grew up:

1. middle upper class

2. college educated at a top 75 college

3. tall, decent looking

are just not working regular corporate 9 to 5s and get by with consulting, small businesses, living off parents, living off nothing, scammy startups

w2 9-5 is straight up not worth it, even in the 150-300k range

antonymoose |root |parent |next [-]

I previously worked at government job, a regional water company. Was on the fast track to become the AD and then CTO in the 5-10 year range as the entire upper echelon was on the verge of retirement. Except my salary would be capped at $150k as the CTO.

The CTO himself owned a home a couple blocks off of the beach in one of the most desirable ZIP codes in my state. I, myself, best I could hope for on that salary is a plywood DR Horton house 20+ miles upriver in a neighborhood that gets robbed weekly by “Kia Boys.”

What was once a very desirable, very secure job became a joke thanks to failing wages and rampant inflation. Best-worst option was a remote job for a mid-salary and move to the sticks, pay off the house fast, and try to coast that remote lifestyle as long as possible.

redwood |root |parent [-]

Could also view it through the lens of simply not building enough housing stock.. imagine if that was a high-rise so that instead of one person living right off the beach it was 100

xeromal |root |parent |next |previous [-]

If 150k to 300k isn't enough for someone, they need financial therapy

antonymoose |root |parent [-]

Try raising a classic family of three with a stay at home spouse in that salary in any metro. You will quickly learn how fast those dollars disappear.

Somehow my grandfather did this as a painter.

Inflation is a killer.

xeromal |root |parent [-]

Only if you're trying to keep up with the Joneses.

antonymoose |root |parent [-]

Nope! We live very conservatively. Turns out life is expensive.

xeromal |root |parent [-]

ok

antonymoose |root |parent [-]

Thank you for the insightful rebuttal!

xeromal |root |parent [-]

It's not a rebuttal. There's no rebuttal to someone's personal story.

antonymoose |root |parent [-]

Go pick a metro, find a decent neighborhood, price out a house. Go price out insurance for a family. Go price out a minivan, go price out student loans, groceries, clothes, a cheap vacation for a week a year, car repairs, home repairs… the list goes on.

It’s not a “personal story” - the finances of living are a bitch and my math isn’t magically different, I’m not keeping up with any Jones’.

I have a lesser standard of living than my (single) mother buying a home in the 1980s here in the 2020s.

Offer a real rebuttal or kindly piss off, this isn’t Reddit.

xeromal |root |parent [-]

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

>Please don't post comments saying that HN is turning into Reddit. It's a semi-noob illusion, as old as the hills.

nh23423fefe |root |parent |previous [-]

how are any of those premises connected to the conclusion?

mikert89 |root |parent [-]

people that are able to work "good jobs" are choosing not to