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A California Program Is Bringing Down the Cost of Heat Pumps by Buying Bulk

38 points by Brajeshwar ago | 40 comments

OldSchool |next [-]

Heat pumps are probably vastly under-installed in the southern part of the US because natural gas has been cheap and plentiful. If you live where natural gas isn't available your fuel option is propane. Propane tracks the price of gasoline, perhaps slightly lower in my experience.

Here in Texas, electricity is only about $0.11/KWH so heat pumps work out like this:

Heat Pump 5.0 COP : $6.50 per MMBtu Natural Gas : $12 - $15 per MMBtu Propane at $3.00 / gallon : $32 per MMBtu

The unfortunate characteristic of heat pumps is that they become less efficient the more you need them, i.e. cold weather, but if weather is generally above freezing, heat pumps are close to their spec range that is based on 47F outdoor temperature.

A buried heat exchanger or a water well makes it a weather-proof geothermal system- this seems like the ideal; if you also need air conditioning it will make your cooling more efficient too.

SergeyKa |root |parent |next [-]

California PG&E charges an average of $0.45/kWh. They know EVs are going to increase demand. They killed NEM1 and NEM2 to prevent folks from installing solar, and those with solar have to pay a monthly fee for the privilege of being connected. Heat pump my a$$.

OldSchool |root |parent [-]

Yep, electricity cost kills its viability in California.

jerlam |root |parent [-]

Also, old homes don't have the outlets for heat pumps. If you're lucky, it's just a breaker, wire, and outlet. If you're unlucky, it requires an electrical panel upgrade or worse.

gwittel |root |parent |previous [-]

Modern heat pumps easily keep efficiency below freezing. Ours goes to 22F before there’s any efficiency drop. A different model goes below 0F (we just didn’t need it).

But yes, many makers push the crappier old tech models that bail around 50F.

gruez |root |parent |next [-]

>Modern heat pumps easily keep efficiency below freezing. Ours goes to 22F before there’s any efficiency drop. A different model goes below 0F (we just didn’t need it).

No they don't. Their efficiency is linearly correlated with the ambient temperature. They don't "keep efficiency" nor is there a concept of "efficiency drop". It's just a straight line down.

https://docs.energytransitionmodel.com/main/heat-pumps/

gwittel |root |parent [-]

You’re right. My wording was imprecise. I should have said the efficiency drop off is such that for practical purposes it doesn’t matter - until you hit a crossing point. You won’t need supplemental heat until then. Newer systems have pushed those points lower.

cityofdelusion |root |parent |next |previous [-]

This wording is inaccurate. It isn't about "modern" heat pumps, its about if another $2-3,000 of electronics and clever injection systems are worth letting the refrigeration cycle work at the extremes. For a lot of the U.S. there is just no need to have a system that is a lot less repairable just to get that efficiency below 50F. The complexity differences between a variable speed system that can work over a 100F degree range and a standard single stage system with just a reversing valve are pretty big. The cost is basically never regained in savings in large parts of the southern U.S. so you just don't see them unless they are overseas models made with cheap labor; meant to be thrown away when they break.

ericd |root |parent [-]

Lots of cold weather heat pumps can be had for <$3k total, it’s not $2-3k of additional electronics.

And beyond cost savings on power (especially not needing to burn $30+ of electricity per day because temps dipped below freezing and resistive heat was needed), they just work a whole lot better, and the variable speed fans make them a whole lot quieter, inside and out.

They’re also simple to install yourself, so you don’t need to pay contractors the absurd fees they’re demanding currently.

OldSchool |root |parent |previous [-]

Mine are from 2011, R410a and on the rare occasion that it gets to 22F here in Austin, they are painfully ineffective!

ericd |root |parent [-]

I installed a cold weather variant a couple years ago, it blasted out heat during the -5 degree cold snaps of last winter, maintained its full capacity, and did it surprisingly efficiently. But probably not worth it to go cold climate in Austin :-)

raincom |root |parent [-]

Which system did you install? Who installed? DIY or a contractor?

ericd |root |parent [-]

DIY, Midea 18k BTU, Hyper -22°F, 23.5 SEER2, 15.5 HSPF. Its air exchanger outside is a good bit bigger than other 18ks, I suspect that's part of how they hit the amazing efficiency at low temps.

exabrial |next |previous [-]

What actually happened [probably], in California:

A heatpump salesman has a buddy that is a government official. Has outdated models he needs to liquidate. Salesman guy needs to be richer. Government official can't take the money directly, but sure would like to fly on salesman guys' private jet when they go golfing. Meanwhile government official guy goes and buys a bunch of Salesman company stock and profits explode.

Heatpumps should absolutely be the primary choice in the correct climates. But these deals are rarely good or efficient for a taxpayer.

dlcarrier |root |parent |next [-]

I'm amazed by how difficult it is to get modern variable-speed heat pumps in California. You're lucky to get a two-speed unit, but they're only marginally better than single-speed. We're stuck with 80's technology because there's literally a list of what you're allowed to install. They claim it's to only allow energy efficient units, but the list is dominated by older inefficient models.

On top of that, you can't have just any contractor install it, they need to be certified to install heat pumps, and of course the ones who are certified will only install a heat pump they sell you.

If you want a modern energy efficient heat pump in California, without waiting forever and paying several times list price, you're going to have to install it illegally.

amluto |root |parent |next [-]

Are you in the same California that I am?

We have the same problem that the entire country has with mediocre, overpriced contractors. And we also have the same problem with ever-changing refrigerant rules. But heat pump availability seems just fine here, even for VRF systems. (Actually, VRF systems seem to be very common among new installations lately.)

exabrial |root |parent |previous [-]

you're about to be stuck with last-generation models that won't ever be updated, because the government has to renegotiate a contract with whomever and someone else will get upset and yada yada.

nitwit005 |root |parent |next |previous [-]

That you struggle to believe a government could ever operate modestly more efficiently, doesn't mean it never happens.

exabrial |root |parent [-]

California is a shining example of where it does not happen.

nitwit005 |root |parent [-]

Never, not a single time, in the entire history of California, has efficiency ever increased?

ericd |root |parent |next |previous [-]

Nah, this is a program that someone in CA put together, it’s not a government program iirc. It’s just a dude coordinating a group buy (which is great! Solar United Neighbors does something similar for solar, and it seems very effective).

gruez |root |parent |next |previous [-]

>Heatpumps should absolutely be the primary choice in the correct climates. But these deals are rarely good or efficient for a taxpayer.

I'm amazed at the cynicism here. [thing] is objectively good, but it's still bad because government is involved and therefore corruption should be assumed? Even if we assume the government is corrupt by default, surely corruption that uses better technology is better than continuing to use the old technology? Otherwise we'd be continuing to burn coal because we wouldn't want the corrupt gas/solar companies to make money.

budsniffer952 |root |parent |next [-]

The right thinks everyone in government is inherently evil, and the left thinks everyone in management or above is inherently evil.

Lots of evil out there, apparently.

wasfgwp |root |parent |previous [-]

All that shouldn’t be necessary without all the anti-consumer regulations which distort the market and inflate prices.

On the other hand you have all the “socialist” countries in Northern Europe which are much more consumer and business friendly (at least in areas like this).

0cf8612b2e1e |root |parent |next |previous [-]

California is trying to remove natural gas installations. Without natural gas, heat pumps are the obvious candidate to replace heating/cooling.

magicalhippo |next |previous [-]

I'm always amazed at how much these costs in the US. Wild prices even for a Norwegian.

We have a two-story home half his size, but one minisplit upstairs and one downstairs would be $3-4000 installed, combined, and that's upper or top-end models.

The ones I got would easily handle a house of his size.

dlcarrier |root |parent |next [-]

It's one of the more protectionist industries in the US. At least it's not as bad as elevators, where imported ones have to be taken apart, so they can be reassembled by approved contractors.

donavanm |root |parent |next |previous [-]

Same in Australia/East Asia generally. Had a mid range daiken 3kw unit installed upstairs last summer; $2500 AUD and ~5 man hours to install including roof access and exterior wall mounting. A bigger 7kw multi head unit would have been about $6-7k AUD but required awkward attic and wall access.

Installed prices in the US are pretty silly. Theres a bourgeoning set of DIY units that come precharged. But even those are pricey compared to the rest of the world.

Tostino |root |parent [-]

Just FYI, there's no reason at all to buy the DIY kits over just a regular mini split. The difference is DIY kits come with the lines pre-vacuumed and with seals on the end of them. So when you finally connect everything, the lines don't need a vacuum drawn on them prior to allowing the refrigerant into them.

A vacuum pump costs about $100. Just get a regular cheap mini split and vacuum the lines yourself, and save $1,000 or more.

donavanm |root |parent [-]

Yeah, vaguely aware that you could diy the entire setup with refrigerant etc. But its not relevant at local prices here in AU.

One of the interesting things I noticed here is that manufacturers are providing exchangers and head units that can reuse existing pipes. Makes sense for retrofit/upgrades where running pipes through utility spaces and bulkheads is a significant labor cost.

Tostino |root |parent [-]

Well it does absolutely affect the price if you are willing to do it yourself. You don't need to actually touch any refrigerants. They are all preloaded in all the mini splits for sale. You just need to get the air out of the lines so it doesn't mix with the refrigerant.

If I were to have it installed, just about any "professional" will totally overcharge here in the US too.

kylehotchkiss |root |parent |previous [-]

If there's ductwork, it's something being installed into the building that has to pass inspections. It's not just one or two holes in the walls that need to be sealed.

magicalhippo |root |parent |next [-]

But the article said he used existing ductwork, and yet it ended up at $14k.

The new heat pump system cost roughly $14,500 and provides heating and cooling via ductwork that was already in place.

amluto |root |parent |previous [-]

No one in their right mind runs ductwork between the interior and exterior of the building in residential installations. There’s power, possible control wiring, and two or (in exotic installations) three refrigerant pipes.

(In a more enlightened world, I think that a system with the refrigerant fully contained within the outdoor unit that uses plain water as the heat exchange fluid could make a lot of sense, and this would not change the pipe situation.)

wesleyd |root |parent [-]

I believe these are called “monobloc” and they exist, but are rare in the US.

amluto |root |parent [-]

You can buy them as “packaged terminal heat pumps”. They’re very common in motels.

kylehotchkiss |next |previous [-]

Why can't we do this for lumber. And drywall. And plumbing. And wires.

quickthrowman |root |parent [-]

Dimensional lumber, gypsum board, plumbing pipe, and electrical conductors are commodities. Heat pumps are not.

There’s no need to subsidize commodity items, there’s plenty of competition to keep prices reasonable barring any massive supply/demand shifts.

cranky908canuck |root |parent [-]

Can't speak to the rest, but lumber has had significant import tariffs to the US for decades. So it doesn't seem as if relative affordability of that commodity is an issue (at least for the last four decades).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada%E2%80%93United_States_s...

butvacuum |previous [-]

a bit rich since california is probabaly a major reason the systems are expensive to begin with.