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The Tradeoffs Facing Japan's Economy

47 points by cl42 ago | 32 comments

tonymet |next [-]

economics < productivity < demographics (primarily ) & technology (secondarily)

Every country in the world is trying to solve the same problem: how to preserve economic growth despite a shrinking population and declining productivity.

The USA and western Europe chose to resolve it with immigration.

Japan & (some of) Eastern Europe chose to resolve it without immigration.

Japan is the economic canary because they had a 15+ year head start, and had the best discipline with immigration control. Their economic indicators are trailing-signals of the demographic freefall. Debt can only patch it for so long.

bradishungry |root |parent |next [-]

this is really an oversimplification. Japan has been struggling since the real estate bubble popped and their post 2008 strategy of extremely low interest rates has lead to the yen carry trade which now is causing problems with raising rates, etc. there’s so many specific factors with japan that are causing issues before population

mamonster |root |parent |next |previous [-]

>The USA and western Europe chose to resolve it with immigration.

Immigration is a core tenet of the post-WW2 Western consensus and precedes any demographic scare in most Western countries by decades.

dauertewigkeit |root |parent |next |previous [-]

Actually Eastern Europe is doing immigration despite what headlines you might be reading. Lots of Indians and Filipinos and Latin Americans.

tonymet |root |parent [-]

You're right for the most part. exceptions (and faltering) would be Poland, Hungary, Russia, and a few others.

leereeves |root |parent [-]

Poland faltering? Three days ago HN had:

Poland now 6th-largest EU economy, ahead of Switzerland and Belgium

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49235323

"Poland's rise is primarily the result of years of economic growth, industrial development, expanding exports and rising consumption and investment."

gruez |root |parent |next |previous [-]

>Every country in the world is trying to solve the same problem: how to preserve economic growth despite a shrinking population and declining productivity.

Which countries are actually seeing secular (ie. not a dip for a few quarters) because of a recession or whatever) productivity decline, and aren't economic basketcases (eg. Cuba or Venezuela)?

tonymet |root |parent [-]

you're assuming gdp means productivity.

|root |parent |next |previous [-]

TacticalCoder |root |parent |previous [-]

> Every country in the world is trying to solve the same problem: how to preserve economic growth ...

Why is economic growth needed?

Because politicians whored for votes and "kept" their promises by creating ever more public debt, spending more than they made (usually while lining up their pockets and the pockets of their relatives, including their mistresses).

Politicians are so corrupt and so incompetent that none of them would even be accepted as president of a table tennis club.

Capitalism doesn't need endless growth to work. It's governments spending more than what they should that do.

SpicyLemonZest |root |parent |next [-]

If there's no economic growth in an aging country, that requires everyone to accept a gradual decline in their standard of living, which is an extraordinarily unpopular idea. (I've talked to people who say they're OK with it, but in my experience, their idea has always been that we'll sacrifice the goods and services they don't personally care about to ensure the ones they do care about remain accessible and affordable.)

carlosjobim |root |parent |previous [-]

Once you start to know the current generation of olds - world wide - you realize that they are just as rotten as the politicians they have put in charge. The difference is just opportunity.

Respect of the elderly is strangling humanity right now, but the olds have always nourished themselves by sucking the life blood of the young. It just has never been as obvious before. It's a vicious cycle, because each generation gets the opportunity to manipulate and bind the younger generations.

Loyalty used to lie with your family, then with your nation. Right now loyalty lies with the generation, and that has catastrophic consequences.

recursivedoubts |next |previous [-]

I think the US helped Japan so that they wouldn't start dumping US treasuries to support the yen, making our already bad situation worse. I don't expect it to work as we are sitting down to a banquet of consequences.

tsunamifury |next |previous [-]

It seems we are not able to talk about the economic effects of this era of capitalism as almost our entire monetary and economic theory seems to be defined by two events and institutions compeltely lack the ability to see anything else

1) The oil crisis of the 70s, inflation of getting off the gold standard

2) The invisible productivity print and GDP of the 90s due to the internet

These two solutions seem to be the only thing our current wonks can imagine as a solve for current crisis that are entirely different and need to be analyzed entirely on their own terms

For example

1) America printed 70% more currency over covid yet somehow did not experience anywhere near the global devaluation it should have (even if we experienced INTERNAL inflation) resulting in an extremely "monaco like" economy where everything is now hyper expensive and economy seems to be 'melting up.'

2) Nations like japan would dont run the world currency are experiencing MASSIVE devaluation while doing the same things, trapping their citizens inside their nation and cutting them off from global trade and weakening their borrowing position

These are net new scenarios the FED refuses to have a new playbook to deal with, and its an impressive illustration of our so called 'experts' complete lack of knowledge of what to do if it wasn't already written down in a book.

triceratops |root |parent |next [-]

> FED

You are aware this isn't an acronym and you mean "Fed"? I don't know how seriously to take your opinions about macroeconomics.

tsunamifury |root |parent [-]

i, in no way, implied it was an acronym which would require periods (in this enviroment) if we are being a pedantic as you. Simply a stylistic choice to cause it to read clearly and stand out.

Your comment is, in its entirety, meaningless and a net negative on our community with its intellectual dishonesty, and beyond that complete inability to interact with the content.

We are all dumber having read it, may god have mercy on your soul.

gruez |root |parent |next [-]

> Simply a stylistic choice to cause it to read clearly and stand out.

Is this actually a thing? I've seen plenty of people capitalize "FED" but rarely see it for anything else. eg. "TRUMP" or "OBAMA".

081c28a92 |root |parent |next |previous [-]

I’m not even the OP but you need to relax buddy, it’s not that serious.

If anything I feel dumber for having read your comment here. Everyone knows you’re just trying to do a cute bit from a movie with that quote.

tsunamifury |root |parent |next [-]

Hey relax! NO JOKES! haha the irony here :)

|root |parent |previous [-]

triceratops |root |parent |previous [-]

> intellectual dishonesty

I didn't know I lied about anything.

> inability to interact with the content

s/inability/reluctance/ because of the reason I gave. But that's still fair criticism and you are right.

> may god have mercy on your soul

Aww thank you

anovikov |root |parent |next |previous [-]

What's the crisis? I mean, what makes you feel there is a crisis? I know social media can make anyone feel extremely anxious these days, but for real?

tsunamifury |root |parent |next [-]

Fair question, we are more on a edge (which who can say when truly til after the fact) but what I see as someone who has privilged position and data into global trade, GDP mandates, and monetary policy and its effects on the private sector is this:

We are locked in a GDP fight globally between powers, triggering real world trade wars and hot wars based on a few hidden factors:

1) A far worse fertiltiy crisis than is publicly known (including timelines to its real effects being far closer)

2) An overabbundance of currency needing to find return in increasingly speculative arenas, an a levered debt system built that REQUIRES that return or risks catastrophic failure

3) A GDP fight globally where in the first to falter triggers a hot war

4) A collapse in social contract between workers and capital class, where in capital class have now publically stated they believe workers are no longer a neccesarry class (contradicting the real terms of point 1)

5) A set of economic rules that are being broken, sending us into the 'no playbook' zone of global stability

This is an ultra toxic mix that is showing up all at once.

snapcaster |root |parent [-]

can you say more about 1?

TacticalCoder |root |parent |previous [-]

> I mean, what makes you feel there is a crisis?

U.S. M2 money supply tripling in 15 years. US gov public debt more than tripling over the same period.

People from the middle class being unable to buy a house.

The money printer has been going brrrrrr since a very long time and everything got badly distorted.

My bet is that when the next financial crisis hits, we'll see helicopter Ben and hear the brrrrr again.

The crisis in one webpage:

https://www.usdebtclock.org/

P.S: that's not talking about a country like France, where the IMF shall have to intervene soon as public spendings are totally out of control and the public debt is running wild.

anovikov |root |parent [-]

Debt to GDP ratio only increased by 1/3 in 15 years, not 3x. And this is a natural consequence of population ageing and is less pronounced than in almost any other developed country. Money supply to GDP is only 1/4 up from 1950s when interest rates were a lot higher. Homeownership is at nearly all-time high except a short stretch of speculative housing bubble ~20 years ago when a lot of people who couldn't afford homes, bought them to speculate, being financially illiterate and tricked by the banks to do to. Do i need to continue?

aksss |root |parent |previous [-]

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alephnerd |next |previous [-]

[flagged]

cl42 |root |parent [-]

Author here. Everything is written by me, by hand. What makes you think it's AI slop?

I see you edited your comment. Yes, we use LLMs to monitor news --- otherwise we wouldn't be able to read Japanese news sites or policy documents. However, the articles and analysis are written "manually". I take this very seriously --- the only "AI" is spelling + grammar checking.

alephnerd |root |parent [-]

[flagged]

cl42 |root |parent |next [-]

I see. Well, feel free to disagree with my insights and ideas; it makes us all better for it.

But refrain from unfounded allegations of AI slop or incompetence. Gatekeeping is even worse.

EDIT: you keep editing your comments. I'm going to stop engaging with you since one can't even have a linear discussion. Good luck with your research and ideas. If you are an expert on Japan, I encourage you to share your views in the general comments here.

paulpauper |root |parent |next |previous [-]

lol a website about "Create your own event-powered feeds, newsletters, & risk maps about topics that matter to your business, big or small" that decided to blog about Japan

speak_plainly |root |parent |previous [-]

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robinsoncrusue |previous [-]

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iamnothere |root |parent |next [-]

Japan is complicated. I read something by a Japanese person the other day who said that the BOJ and Japanese banks are very separate from the real economy (and have been since the Lost Decade). He didn’t think that the Yen problem would ruin the economy in the way that people are worried about. I don’t know enough to say much about it, but I will say that Japan has some of the world’s oldest companies and a very deep culture around preserving generational continuity.

Not that Japan isn’t facing problems; the aging population is a serious issue, and it is getting squeezed between US pressure, regional trade relationships, energy needs, and its complex relationship with China.

I often get the impression that there are two Japans, one that deals with the US (which still has a military occupation!) and the “real” Japan. The US-facing Japan is very acquiescent, but nothing much comes of it other than pleasant words, small gestures, and whatever the BOJ and SoftBank are doing.

robinsoncrusue |root |parent [-]

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reducesuffering |root |parent |previous [-]

Holy telephone game... the Kissinger quote you are referring to was about if they let the South Vietnamese leader fall, then the world would take away the message that we wouldn't support our allies.

Instead we get this butchered caricature all over the internet

MSKJ |root |parent [-]

"If Thieu meets the same fate as Diem, the word will go out to the nations of the world that it may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal"