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The Strongest El Niño Ever Forecast and the Hunger It Will Leave Behind

53 points by fredski42 ago | 11 comments

ColdStream |next [-]

It has been fascinating watching how all the model predictions have evolved over the last 8 months.

Back at the start of the year, they all figured it would peak at about 2c, now almost every model is over 3c with some well above that.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/plume.ht...

We aren't as used to this as we used to be due to the higher pace of news nowadays (increasing for decades mind you), but this is something that will unfold over the next year or two and will have a lasting tale that could go may years beyond that.

Thus the predicament of climate change, it moves just slow enough that many can ignore it, but it moves fast enough that the ecosystem is being slammed by it. And the industrial civilization built on top of it? Time will tell how we manage.

Balinares |root |parent |next [-]

I find I can't even process that models from only 6 months ago, whose predictions were already somber, turned out to be overly optimistic by a factor of 50% and climbing. And life appears to just go on for now, at least for my privileged arse and hopefully yours also, even as we watch in real time a rising tide biting into the base of the metaphorical sandcastle we're sitting on. Goodness.

netsharc |root |parent [-]

I wonder if it's a deer in headlight moment for most of humanity.

When 2 planes crashed on the runway in Tenerife, one plane had a lot of survivors initially, but many of them sat there just frozen:

https://youarenotsosmart.com/transcript-episode-177-covid-19...

Starting from: > Escape was possible, but not all of the survivors attempted it.

Balinares |root |parent [-]

I wonder if that's what deer feel, yeah. See what's coming, see it right there, and yet just... don't quite believe it.

moralestapia |root |parent |previous [-]

I recommend you watch a movie named Don't Look Up. Hilarious ... in a dark way.

Also, top of the line cast, they even won an Artios award for that.

Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence, Rob Morgan, Jonah Hill, Mark Rylance, Tyler Perry, Timothée Chalamet, Ron Perlman, Ariana Grande, Kid Cudi, Cate Blanchett, and Meryl Streep; can it get better than THAT?! (Note: Timothée Chalamet is the guy from Rune, his name is always so difficult to write for me, I think he's from Algeria)

Anyway, go watch it, you'll enjoy it.

It obviously bombed at the box office (1 million rev. on 75 million invested), because people are not ready to hear what's coming. Now it's becoming real with el niño and el primo, don't you dare say we didn't warn you!

toader |root |parent [-]

Timothée Chalamet is in Dune and is a dual US / French citizen, born in NYC. I'm not sure 'because people are not ready to hear what's coming' is why the movie performed poorly in the box office but interesting speculation.

gepeake |previous [-]

Scary. From the news I see, there are seemingly many more wildfires, hurricanes, and now heatwaves and an El Niño that are breaking their records by significantly more than the 0.1 C that the actual climate has changed in the past 10 years. It feels possibly apocalyptic to project this exponential trend forward. From the perspective of someone just reading the media I'm unable to be sure whether this is a red car effect, the media just knowing this content works, or whether this is simply the state of things. Are there any experts that might shed some light?

Daishiman |root |parent [-]

> Are there any experts that might shed some light?

The experts have been consistently predicting that the destabilization of the climate can lead to civilization-ending events and that we'd be clearly in that territory by the end of the century.

But that's just the climate system, not accounting for things like the Hormuz closure or whatever political shenanigans might be dismantling the global commerce safety net that was part of the neoliberal experiment.

So it seems that we're right on schedule for the ever increasing baseline catastrophies from climate change. As usual the scientists were right.

trolleski |root |parent [-]

It's called 'jackpot' in cyberpunk.

It seems the boomers are so full of it that they actually want to be the last generation.

dv_dt |root |parent [-]

I know that Jackpot is naming that William Gibson created in his Peripherial books. Are there other common references, I'm curious?

trolleski |root |parent [-]

I think it also appeared somewhere in the Cyberpunk ttrpg lore but not sure, I've been using it because of the expressiveness.